Lecture One · 3 June 2026
01Lecture One

Software
Engineering
Economics

An introduction to the discipline that asks not can we build it, but should we — and at what cost.

Instructor
Dr. Zhijiang Chen
Session
No. 01 of 16
Date
3 June 2026
Room
YF302
Duration
110 minutes
Format
Lecture & Discussion
A course in fourteen lectures · two presentations · one examination.
Lecture IAgenda 02 / 25
Today's Plan

Six movements, one motivation.

By the end of today you should know what software engineering economics is, why an engineer should care, and how the next sixteen sessions will unfold.

§TopicMinutes
I.What is software engineering economics?15
II.Why every engineer needs economic literacy15
III.Boehm's seven-step framework20
IV.The decisions economics informs15
V.A motivating example: Build or Buy?15
VI.Course roadmap, expectations, assessment20
Discussion, homework, questions10
Part OneDefinition 03
Part — One
I

What is software
engineering economics?

"Every software decision is, in the end, an economic decision."
— after Barry W. Boehm, 1981

§ I · DefinitionLecture One
§ IDefinition 04
Working Definition

An applied discipline at the intersection of three fields.

Software Engineering Economics applies the methods of economic analysis to decisions about the development, acquisition, evolution, and operation of software systems.

It was systematised in 1981 by Barry W. Boehm in the eponymous textbook — the same volume that gave us the original COCOMO model.

For the working engineer, it answers one recurring question:
given scarce resources, what should we build — and how?
Software
Engineeringthe craft
Engineering
Economicsthe calculus
Management
Sciencethe organisation
SEE
§ I · Definition04 / 38
§ IResources at stake 05
Scarce by Definition

What economists count, and what software engineers usually don't.

ResourceWhat it isHow software people under-count it
MoneyBudget, op-ex, licences, infra.Spreadsheets hide the long tail of run-time cost.
TimeCalendar weeks, engineer hours, compute seconds.Optimism bias on every estimate ever made.
PeopleEngineers, designers, PMs, support.Counting heads, ignoring context-switching cost.
ComputeCPU, GPU, memory, bandwidth, tokens."Free" until the first cloud bill arrives.
AttentionCognitive load on users and on engineers.Treated as infinite; in fact the binding constraint.

— Tokens, GPU-time, and inference-latency are 2020s additions to a canon written in 1981.

§ I · Definition05 / 38
§ IWorking definition 06
Software engineering economics is the study of how to make good software decisions when resources are scarce.
— working definition for this course
§ I · Definition06 / 38
Part TwoMotivation 07
Part — Two
II

Why should you,
a software engineer,
care about economics?

"Engineers are not paid to write code. They are paid to deliver value."

§ II · MotivationLecture One
§ IIHidden questions 08
Every technical question is also an economic one

Translate the question.

The technical questionThe hidden economic question
Should we refactor this module?Is the future cost saving worth the present rework?
Microservices, or monolith?Which architecture minimises five-year total cost of ownership?
Should we adopt this new framework?Does the productivity gain exceed migration cost?
Build it, or buy a SaaS product?Which alternative has the better Net Present Value?
How much testing is enough?What level of defect risk are we economically willing to accept?
Should we adopt an AI coding assistant?Does the productivity gain cover licence + token + verification cost?
§ II · Motivation08 / 38
§ IICommon pitfalls 09
What happens without the economic lens

Four ways smart engineers
optimise the wrong thing.

Local beauty

Polishing one module while the system around it loses money.

Premature scale

Engineering for users that may never arrive — burning capital that revenue can't yet justify.

False economy

Saving a small effort now, paying a large cost later. The "five-minute fix" that fossilises.

Sunk-cost loyalty

Continuing a failing initiative because it has consumed so much already.

This course gives you the vocabulary and the discipline to recognise — and resist — each of these in your own work.

§ II · Motivation09 / 38
Part ThreeFramework 10
Part — Three
III

Boehm's seven steps —
the spine of every
economic analysis.

A discipline so general that it works for a $10K tooling decision and a $10M platform investment alike.

§ III · FrameworkLecture One
§ IIIThe seven steps 11
Boehm, 1981 — Chapter 1

A discipline of seven moves.

#ActivityExample, in the AI age
01Establish objectives"Reduce ticket resolution time by 30% in 12 months."
02Identify alternativesHire more agents · deploy an AI assistant · outsource.
03Define assumptions & constraintsBudget < $500K; PII cannot leave the cluster.
04Build cost modelsEstimate ticket volume, labour cost, token spend, ramp time.
05Evaluate quantitativelyCompute NPV, IRR, payback for each option.
06Sensitivity & riskWhat if volume grows 50%? if API prices rise 30%?
07Iterate & decideChoose, document, set review checkpoints.
§ III · Framework11 / 38
§ IIIIn practice 12
A note on rigour

Rigid in form,
flexible in application.

What stays constant

  • Every analysis is anchored to an explicit objective.
  • Alternatives are compared on the same basis.
  • Assumptions are written down — so the next engineer can check them.
  • The decision is documented, not just made.

What changes with context

  • The depth of each step — back-of-envelope for tooling, full Monte-Carlo for platforms.
  • The units — dollars, engineer-weeks, latency milliseconds, tokens-per-task.
  • The stakeholders — engineers, finance, legal, customers.

We will return to this framework in every remaining lecture.

§ III · Framework12 / 38
Part FourDecisions 13
Part — Four
IV

A map of the decisions
this discipline can actually help with.

§ IV · DecisionsLecture One
§ IVDecision map 14
Where SEE shows up

Five families, one toolbox.

① Project decisions

Should we start? How big? How risky? NPV, payback, COCOMO II, Monte Carlo.

② Architecture decisions

Build vs. buy vs. SaaS · monolith vs. microservices. TCO, VBSE.

③ Quality decisions

Testing, review, observability; technical debt now or later. Defect-cost curve.

④ Operations & lifecycle

Retire, rewrite, or leave alone. Maintenance economics, rewrite break-even.

⑤ AI-era decisions NEW

Self-host vs. API · AI coding assistant · pricing AI products. Token economics, productivity ROI.

Lectures 12 & 13 are dedicated to family ⑤.

§ IV · Decisions14 / 38
Part FiveWorked example 15
Part — Five
V

A motivating example —
build it ourselves,
or buy a SaaS?

We will not yet solve this. We will solve it together in Lecture V.

§ V · Worked exampleLecture One
§ VBuild vs. buy 16
A small but real decision

Adding search to a product.

Two equally plausible alternatives, very different cash-flow shapes. Without the time value of money, you cannot tell them apart.

AlternativeOne-time costAnnual op costUseful life
A. Build in-house with Elasticsearch$ 120,000$ 30,0005 years
B. Subscribe to a SaaS search vendor$ 20,000$ 80,0005 years

At an opportunity cost of capital of 10%, which alternative is cheaper in present-value terms?

The "right" answer depends on the time value of money — a concept we will formalise in Lecture III and apply rigorously in Lecture V.
§ V · Worked example16 / 38
§ VIn-class poll 17
Quick — gut response only

Without computing a single number:

Which alternative would you recommend — and what single factor is driving your gut?

Abuild

Heavy upfront, light run-time.

Bbuy

Light upfront, heavy run-time.

We will revisit your gut in Lecture V — with numbers. Try not to flip your vote between now and then.

§ V · Worked example17 / 38
Part SixThe course 18
Part — Six
VI

What you will learn —
and what you will be
asked to produce.

§ VI · CourseLecture One
§ VIThe roadmap 19
Sixteen sessions, three weeks

The shape of the term.

Week 14 · Jun 3–7
Foundations of
Engineering Economics
  • 01Introduction
  • 02Cost concepts & lifecycle
  • 03Time value of money
  • 04Cash flow & equivalence
  • 05Investment decisions
Week 15 · Jun 8–14
Decision Methods,
Estimation & Strategy
  • 06Break-even & sensitivity
  • 07Risk & decision
  • 08Estimation I — size, FP
  • 09Estimation II — COCOMO II
  • 10Quality & maintenance
  • 11Build / buy / reuse · VBSE
  • 12AI · estimation impact
Week 16 · Jun 15–18
AI Economics,
Presentations & Final
  • 13AI · token economics & ROI
  • 14Student presentations I
  • 15Student presentations II
  • 16Final examination

Each lecture page on the course site carries: objectives · key formulas · worked examples · in-class exercises · homework.

§ VI · Course19 / 38
§ VIAssessment 20
How you will be graded

Four ways the course
measures your learning.

ComponentWeight
Participation & in-class quizzes15%
Homework assignments (~6)25%
Group project & presentation30%
Final exam (closed book)30%
Total100%

Grading scale

A90 +
B80 – 89
C70 – 79
D60 – 69
Fbelow 60

Late work: −10% per day, three-day maximum.

§ VI · Course20 / 38
§ VIGroup project 21
The capstone — 30% of your grade

A full economic analysis, defended before peers.

Required content

  1. Project description and scope.
  2. Cost estimate (Function Points or COCOMO II), with assumptions.
  3. Cash-flow forecast and ≥ 2 alternatives.
  4. NPV, IRR, payback, PI for each.
  5. Sensitivity or risk analysis.
  6. Bonus: AI-cost dimension (tokens, productivity).
  7. Recommendation with stakeholder rationale.

Logistics

  • Teams of 3 – 4.
  • Briefs released Lecture 8 · 10 Jun.
  • Presentations in Lectures 14 & 15.
  • 12 min talk · 5 min Q&A · 3 min peer eval.
  • Reports due before the final exam.
Teams self-select after Lecture 5 — choose collaborators carefully.
§ VI · Course21 / 38
§ VIReading 22
Books and papers

What's on the shelf.

Required

  • Boehm, B. W. (1981). Software Engineering Economics. Prentice Hall — the foundation.
  • Boehm, B. W., et al. (2000). Software Cost Estimation with COCOMO II. Prentice Hall.
  • Selected articles on Value-Based SE and AI economics (linked in each lecture).

Recommended

  • Park, C. S. Contemporary Engineering Economics — for the engineering-economics canon.
  • Erdogmus, H., Favaro, J., Halling, M. (2004). "Valuation of software initiatives under uncertainty."
  • 2026 industry reports on LLM cost, prompt caching, AI coding productivity — linked in Lectures 12 & 13.
§ VI · Course22 / 38
DiscussionThree prompts 23
Open floor — 10 minutes

Three questions for the room.

  1. Recall a software decision you have made or witnessed. Was any economic analysis performed — and if not, what was used instead?
  2. What is the "cost" — to the team, the user, the company — of (a) good code shipped late, vs. (b) average code shipped on time?
  3. Which of Boehm's seven steps do real engineering teams most often skip — and why?
Discussion23 / 38
HomeworkDue Lecture 3 24
Homework 01 — due Friday 5 June, before class

Apply the framework.

  1. Read Boehm (1981), Chapter 1, and write a one-page reflection on which of Boehm's claims have aged well — and which have been overtaken by the AI era.
  2. Identify one decision from your current job or last group project that, in retrospect, would have benefited from Boehm's seven steps. In 1–2 pages, walk through the seven steps as if you were making the decision today.
Submit as a single PDF to the course Git repository, in /submissions/HW1/<your-name>.pdf. Late submissions: −10%/day.
Homework 0124 / 38
EndLecture One 25
&

Questions & conversation.

Dr. Zhijiang Chen
Software Engineering Economics · Summer 2026
frostburg-state-university.github.io/bju

Software Engineering EconomicsChen · FSU 2026